By: media for freedom

Preparing For Worst

By ABIJIT SHARMA

Kathmandu, Nepal: When the Caribbean nation of Haiti was hit by a major quake of 7.2 Richter scale, Nepal was preparing to celebrate its National Earthquake Safety Day four days later, on 16th January.

Congested Kathmandu: Under a threat

The Haiti quake, that took a toll of more 200,000 lives, understandably triggered alarms in Nepal.

Experts said a tremor of that magnitude and devastation was not only possible, but inevitable in Nepal, which lies in an earthquake-prone region.

In its history of tremors now and then, Nepal saw a devastating quake hitting it in 1934 A.D and killing more than 8,500 people.

Based on the records, experts warn that Nepal can expect two earthquakes between 7.5 – 8 Richter scale in magnitude every forty years and one earthquake of more than 8 Richter scale every 80 years. If the data have their day, it is quite certain that a devastating earthquake is definitely on its way.

Kathmandu Valley is listed among the most vulnerable places in terms of quakes,  primarily due to two main reasons. One, the valley’s surface is made up of soft sediments, which amplifies an earthquake tremor and the risk of damage.Two, experts have cautioned that the valley will suffer largely due to a phenomenon called liquefaction in which soil transforms into a semi-liquid material when shaken during an earthquake, hence losing its ability to support buildings and other infrastructure.  

Despite looming dangers for a huge disaster, unplanned urbanization is escalating in the valley, making matters worse.

According to 2001 census, the population of the valley was more than 1.6 million with an annual population growth rate at 4.7%.  If the census is to be taken as a basis, between 1.5 to 2 million population would be added in the next 10 years. The current population of the Kathmandu Valley has surpassed 3 million.

The current area of the valley is insufficient to fulfill the demands of the growing population and 5000 hectares of more land is needed to fulfill the settlement requirements. The aftermath of a huge earthquake amidst this outsized population is unthinkable.

According to a 1998 estimate, more than 40,000 people would lose their lives and 95,000 would be critically injured. This toll will undoubtedly rise with the current population. The study further predicted that more than 60 percent of the buildings would be completely damaged in the valley and many other parts.

NGOs like National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET) have carried out programs for public, regarding various aspects of earthquakes. It is high time the Government and the Kathmandu Municipality enforce strict actions to control rising urbanization as the foremost step in minimizing the risks and casualties associated with an earthquake for the valley in the near future. Although some laws and codes regarding constructions have been set up, they are not enforced at all and construction works continue to be carried out haphazardly. Most of the people are even unaware of such codes.

Of course, it is not possible to prevent an earthquake but by simply minimizing the risks, thousands of lives can be saved.

Source:Spotlight

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